Ok, so I said I'd never write another -- things change.
There is a new kid on the block. Or maybe the old kid has just moved back. Come January 1st, 2002 Keeper will be back. I've got my deck, what about you? Doomsday, bah, what a joke, BBS, they can accumulate some knowledge; I've got Wisdom, OSE, I should be scared.
The restriction of Fact or Fiction will slow down this environment on the control side. Legend Blue as we know will be dead. Acc. Blue will be a good deck, just not dominant.
The new improved (and untested Keeper):
4 Cities of Brass
4 Underground Sea
3 Tropical Island
2 Tundra
3 Volcanic Island
1 Undiscovered Paradise
1 Strip Mine
2 Wasteland
1 Library of Alexandria
7 Artifact Mana
Just a note on the mana: this is actually a stable mana base. I have at least 8 sources of each color not including Lotus, which mathmatically means I will draw one mana source of that color in my opening hand over 90% of the time.
4 Force of Will
4 Mana Drain
1 Counterspell
1 Misdirection
1 Fact or Fiction
1 Stroke of Genius
1 Braingyser
1 Jayomdae Tome
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Time Walk
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Vampiric Tutor
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Merchant Scroll
1 Dismantling Blow
1 Mind Twist
1 Holistic Wisdom
1 Diabolic Edict
1 Zuran Orb
1 The Abyss
1 Extract
1 Balance
1 Regrowth
1 Yawgmoths Will
2 Morphlings
God I love this deck. Notice the crazy synergy that crappier Keeper choices have with Holistic Wisdom. Suddenly an Extract becomes Time Walk or Time Walk causes Extract to become more Jester's Cap. Gyser can also be Extract or Time Walk.
Just to make it very clear how strong this deck is, just imagine a deck list of Acc. Blue with only one FoF and four Accumulated Knowledges.
Ok, so what if they don't restrict FoF is what you might be thinking. That's valid. I would say that there is a strong possibility of this.
Stephen Menendian
2 Wasteland
1 Extract
NO NO NO!!!
And where's the Sylvan Library?!? Gah!
YES YES YES!!! Azhrei accepts no variation. Azhrei demands 3 Wastelands otherwise Azhrei say "sub-optimal." Azhrei not like Extract.
About extract -- you old school people who remember Jester's Cap. Remember what one of the best parts of Jester's Cap was in the days when netdecks were scarce? Knowledge. Information.
Where is Sylvan Library? Not in this deck.
Stephen Menendian
Azhrei accepts no crappy card pool choices that totally limit the effectiveness of a Keeper deck in the critical early stages of the game and leave you open to an LoA tearing you apart.
I remember when Jester's Cap was good-- it was 1998. Amazingly enough, the "knowledge and information" aspect of it isn't as useful since hey, we're ALL USING THE INTERNET. Everything is a netdeck these days, since even original ideas show up here immediately.
Yes, Sylvan clearly has no place in this deck. It's a card we call "good." The rest of the deck is just a Keeper laundry list that you've just made worse.
Right, shows what you know -- Keeper is hardly a laundrylist post restriction. There are practically 10 cards which could be played or not maindeck: Tome, Zorb, Gyser, Regrowth, Holistic Wisdom, Misdirection, Moat, Impulse, Dismantling Blow, Seal of Cleansing, Swords to Plowshare and so on. There are many ways to go, so don't act like there is only one Keeper to be played.
Come back when you have something more substantive to say that add a Waste and a Sylvan in place of Extract. That's just not enough to make me care.
"I remember when Jester's Cap was good-- it was 1998. Amazingly enough, the "knowledge and information" aspect of it isn't as useful since hey, we're ALL USING THE INTERNET. Everything is a netdeck these days, since even original ideas show up here immediately. "
Ok, so you can rely on memorizing netdecks, and I'll play my lone Extract. People tend to tech out in real life, so that surprises abound.
Ach, this thread is quickly becoming another Azhrei v. Smmenen pissing match.
Stephen Menendian
Looking at it, Keeper looks far worse without multiple fact or fictions than BBS. Don't know why, it just does. I think Legend's changes to AccBlue are much stronger than these changes to Keeper.
That said why are you supporting red so heavily if you don't even maindeck red? I would think that the presense of 3 Volcanics makes at least a fire/ice useful, if not a shaman. BTW, has anyone given Pyroclasm any thought as a sb card? Serious Suicide Black and Sligh beatings.
And if you're going the blast route in the sb, you need four Volcanics. BBS's wastelands will just rip your 3 Volcanics apart; Red Elemental will never get out.
Realistically, Keeper still needs to be able to beat AccBlue/BBS, and the addition of Extract and Wisdom just isn't gonna do it.
Just trying to break up the pissing match.
I think I'd rather have a Sylvan than a Zuran Orb against the toughest matchups.
I'd also favour a Mana Leak over Counterspell since it is the early game that you need to control, later it is FoW fodder or useful in long counter battles.
9 sources of red mana should be able to handle 5 strips unless Blue is drawing freely in which case the game is over anyway.
IMHO Extract looks like a sideboard card since it can't be pitched to FoW and is next to useless vs aggro.
Personally I run two Blessings instead of Will and Regrowth. They work very well with Sylvan and FoF, time will tell if they are as solid with just one FoF. I think Keeper isn't the sort of deck that requires an explosive turn that Will gives, slow steady pressure is more in theme. This is obviously contrary to accepted Keeper wisdom but as you say Keepers are traditionally a little different.
Hah, I can't wait till we get to Dec 1 and FoF is not restricted. I'll be able to hear the New Yorkers bitching from Iowa.
Azhrei: Narrow minded, aren't you?
If I see more bullshit on this thread, it gets deleted. No questions asked.
Dan: Why can't it be pitched to FoW? It's a blue card after all.
2 Wastes is too low. I can never find one in time against LoA with just 2. 1 Extract is lame. You can't reliably get it early and you need to do it multiple times with HW if you want to remove all the victory conditions. Sylvan is just a bomb. It's Maher Oath's best card against control in Extended and its the closest thing to a silver bullet against control that there is.
I'm convinced that HW is a very good card--but you can't just throw one in. You need to build your deck with it in mind. If you cast it, all you can really do is turn counters or a few sub-optimal cards into Ancestrals or to turn bad counters into Drains. Without an Academy you can't "go off" with HW either. This is why I think that Rakso gave it a bum rap in his Odyssey article.
Quote:I'm convinced that HW is a very good card--but you can't just throw one in. You need to build your deck with it in mind. If you cast it, all you can really do is turn counters or a few sub-optimal cards into Ancestrals or to turn bad counters into Drains. Without an Academy you can't "go off" with HW either. This is why I think that Rakso gave it a bum rap in his Odyssey article.
I don't know where you get that 90% chance to get at least 1 mana of any color when you only have 8 sources in your deck - I get a 65.36% chance. You don't get a 90% chance to draw at least one mana of a perticular color until you have 16 mana sources of that color. And even then, you still have a 29.25% chance of only getting one source of that color which can be promptly stripped away.
>>>Yes, Sylvan clearly has no place in this deck. It's a card we call "good." The rest of the deck is just a Keeper laundry list that you've just made worse.
You know Az, not EVERY Keeper deck with the mana to support it needs to run Sylvan. SHEESH. It's not like that card is all that...
Extract is amusing. It's not the worst thing I've ever seen--after all it does pitch to Force. What I don't like about it is that it doens't do anything against 90% of decks you'll play.
Drawing this against any non-Keeper or non-combo (and combo is rare as hell now so it's really just Keeper) deck and it's a timewalk for them--unless you've got a Hollistic Wisdom engine set up (in which place you've already won). Hell it's not good against Keeper until you hit him with two. I'd be THRILLED to get Extracted on turn one...it's like you mulliganed. Oh and it doesn't do jack squat to mono-U with 4 Morphlings. Recursion, yes--but they're sure to have drawn morph by then.
>>>Ach, this thread is quickly becoming another Azhrei v. Smmenen pissing match.
For now I'm on the side that doesn't die to first turn LoA.
Never mind Mishra's beatdown....you aren't playing 8 billion seals of cleansing now.
In fact the enitre deck looks VERY vulnerable to beatdown. I don't see what the problem with tossing a random StP in is...it becomes Ancestral later with Hollistic Wisdom.
--Matt
To both Matt and JP who said:
"I'm convinced that HW is a very good card--but you can't just throw one in. You need to build your deck with it in mind.
For now I'm on the side that doesn't die to first turn LoA. "
1st turn LoA is always a threat - with only two wastelands and a Strip with four impulses in my BBS I was always able to find one. What makes you think with tutors I would be less able? I'm not going to destabilize my mana to accomadate another Wasteland - a card which I recall YOU saying sometime ago alot of keepers were moving toward the use of "2-3." Moreover, even if I were to add four, that does not guarantee me access to one in the near future.
JP, take a careful look at the deck -- I was building with HW in mind. See what I've done? I moved in Extract, Braingyser, etc - instead of going with the multiple Merchant Scroll route.
I tested Sylvan ALONG time ago. I find it hilarious how Matt has managed to turn everyone's position around except for me. He has been the most consistant supporter of this card even in the face of criticism of you now who support it.
I don't support it. When I played with it, I remember wishing to draw it - even tho I have mana to support it I distinctly recall Soothsaying to be BETTER in playtesting than Sylvan because I would be able to look deeper in mid to late game. If that isnt' a silver bullet I don't know what is. However if I found soothsaying to be better than sylvan, and I don't play with soothsaying, what does that say?
Now, the only flaw I can see in that logic, is that within the last year, something has subtely changed that makes sylvan so much better than a year ago and that will have to carry over into January.
Matt, the reason the seals are gone is simply because I don't fear B2B as much without Four Fact or Fictions in the environment.
I don't know where you get that 90% chance to get at least 1 mana of any color when you only have 8 sources in your deck - I get a 65.36% chance. You don't get a 90% chance to draw at least one mana of a perticular color until you have 16 mana sources of that color. And even then, you still have a 29.25% chance of only getting one source of that color which can be promptly stripped away.
Ok, my math was messed up, but so is yours. Here is the correct math.
With 12 mana of a specific color source, I will get EXACTLY one in my opening hand slightly over 90% of the time.
With 16 of a specific color source I will EXACTLY 2 in my opening hand over 85% of the time.
Stephen Menendian
Sylvan Library is GOD in my deck, but of course, with 3 tutors, 4 FoFs and 2 Oaths the reasons are obvious. With FoF gone and without Oath, I think Merchant Scroll(s) and/or Impulse should be there to help it. If FoF goes, I will probably either go Geyser, Tome and fit in 3 Impulse or go Accumulated Knowledges (combos with Oath).
My $.02
--
Chris
Dan said:
"I think I'd rather have a Sylvan than a Zuran Orb against the toughest matchups."
Now that I would do!!! However I would have MORE people bitching at me for not playing with Zuran Orb. I've also felt that in order to not run Zorb, I need a Moat.
"I'd also favour a Mana Leak over Counterspell since it is the early game that you need to control, later it is FoW fodder or useful in long counter battles. "
I dislike Mana Leak. It is a good card, but so suboptimal. I would rather actually run 2 REB's.
"9 sources of red mana should be able to handle 5 strips unless Blue is drawing freely in which case the game is over anyway. "
I agree.
IMHO Extract looks like a sideboard card since it can't be pitched to FoW and is next to useless vs aggro.
It is a sideboard card, if it is even good enough for that. Please remember that I'm simply testing it. How can I decide whether to play with it if I haven't even tested in yet? But it can be pitched to FOW.
"Personally I run two Blessings instead of Will and Regrowth. They work very well with Sylvan and FoF, time will tell if they are as solid with just one FoF. I think Keeper isn't the sort of deck that requires an explosive turn that Will gives, slow steady pressure is more in theme. This is obviously contrary to accepted Keeper wisdom but as you say Keepers are traditionally a little different. "
When you paint broader strokes here I agree with you. However you seem to have made a flaw: Keeper does, and can, frequently go into topdecking wars: against Suicide Black, against sligh, against mirror matches, and so on. Drawing Yawg Will will give you the advantage for the remainder of the game.
Begbie said:
"Looking at it, Keeper looks far worse without multiple fact or fictions than BBS. Don't know why, it just does. I think Legend's changes to AccBlue are much stronger than these changes to Keeper.
That said why are you supporting red so heavily if you don't even maindeck red? I would think that the presense of 3 Volcanics makes at least a fire/ice useful, if not a shaman. BTW, has anyone given Pyroclasm any thought as a sb card? Serious Suicide Black and Sligh beatings."
I agree to some extend on the first part. Keeper is weaker, but that is a meaningless statement, because abosolute weakness is not relevant, I want to guage relative weakness. Which deck will weaken the least? Which deck will now be best?
I did some testing with Ophidian/ Finkel decks and I just like this better.
As for Pyroclasm, I would probably run one in the sideboard if I wasn't using Oaths. You don't think the 3 volcanics plus four cities, plus mox, plus Undiscovered Paradise is enough to cast REB?
Stephen Menendian
>>>Now, the only flaw I can see in that logic, is that within the last year, something has subtely changed that makes sylvan so much better than a year ago and that will have to carry over into January.
No, the flaw is in your testing. Basically it boils down to this: you were and are wrong; Sylvan is made of solid gold.
>>>I'm not going to destabilize my mana to accomadate another Wasteland - a card which I recall YOU saying sometime ago alot of keepers were moving toward the use of "2-3."
I know _I_ didn't say 2. J.P. didn't say 2. 3 is fine (plus Strip), but 2 is ridiculous. Tutors are NOT a legit excuse to play only two. Do you really want to waste a Demonic tutor uneccesarily to nab a strip to stop LoA? Tutors are supposed to help a tight deck run more smoothly--not fix gaping holes in shoddy deckbuilding.
Never mind the fact that Vamping (or Mysticaling for D.T.) for strip is a card disadvantage, not to mention an extra turn (which basically means you're turning his LoA into 2 for 1 into a 3 or 4 for 1).
Now honestly. I think I know what this deck is all about. You're still fuming over the whole Doomsday thing and are trying to post a really janky Keeper deck and pretend it's good as revenge right?
--Matt
Quote:The restriction of Fact or Fiction will slow down this environment on the control side. Legend Blue as we know will be dead. Acc. Blue will be a good deck, just not dominant.
"No, the flaw is in your testing. Basically it boils down to this: you were and are wrong; Sylvan is made of solid gold. "
Matt, at least you're consistant.
"Now honestly. I think I know what this deck is all about. You're still fuming over the whole Doomsday thing and are trying to post a really janky Keeper deck and pretend it's good as revenge right? "
Not at all. I don't really care one way or the other about Doomsday as evidenced by how little I posted in that thread. If you feel this deck is "really janky" than it would simply become normal according to you ( and others) by
- Extract
+ Sylvan
- some land
+ Wasteland
??
If that is all that needs to be changed to make this "really Janky" to normal, than we need to sit down and have a conversation about saying what we mean.
The point I was trying to make is this: if I do add a Wasteland, which I'm not opposed to at all -- esp. given how slow this format is going to be, the question is, am I opening up bigger holes? The answer is quite possibly yes. First of all, that would mean I would have to waste a tutor tutoring for land anyway if I'm mana screwed and I feel my A. recall will be countered.
Not to mention that in your example DTing for a Waste is DAMNED GOOD use of a dt.
So let's boil this down to a single point: Keeper has an unstable mana base -- I was trying to shore that up by creating a slightly lesser weakness against LOA.
So let me post these two questions to all reading this thread:
1) Are three strips enough to ward off LOA as long as I save them for LOA or mana screwed opponents?
2) If not, what would you suggest removing for the third strip, but keeping the color mana count damned near what it is now?
Short answers are good.
Stephen Menendian
What about cutting (essentially) 1 colour - e.g. White (just keeping Balance and D-Blow) - something like
Mana (28):
4 COB
4 Underground
4 Tropical
2 Vulcanic
1 UP
1 Strip
1 LoA
4 Waste
7 SoLoMoxen
Blue(18):
4 Mana Drain
4 FoW
2 Morphling
1 Merchant Scroll
1 FoF
1 Ancestral
1 Walk
1 Stroke
1 Geysir
1 Mystical
1 Fire&Ice
Black(8):
2 Duress
1 Abyss
1 Edict
1 Demonic
1 Vampiric
1 Mindtwist
1 YagWill
Green(2):
1 HW
1 Sylvan
White(2):
1 Balance
1 D-Blow
Red(1+Fire&Ice)
1 Mox Monkey
Artifact(1):
1 Zorb
SB(15):
whatever - some REBs sound always good, NO Moat without Tundras, Compost, Keg, Core, etc.
It is a bit similar to a deck JP posted some months ago when he tested HW (well, I guess it is difficult to post a GOOD Keeper deck not being similar to any other Keeper deck).
The only drawback of such a built is the problems you might have in casting an early Balance (only 6 W sources, not counting Lotus). I don't know if the advantages of the deck can cancel this... Any ideas (cutting red instead does not seem advisable to me)?
Steven, just look at your percentages for a second. 90% of the time you'll get EXACTLY one with only 12 in the deck? Don't be silly.
I'll even post an exact table for you: Columns are number of lands of that color drawn, while the rows are number of cards in deck. All rows sum to one, these are raw fractions.
(Tab delimitated, you might have to cut/paste it into a text editor for it to format right...
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 0.8833 0.1167 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 0.7785 0.2096 0.0119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 0.6846 0.2819 0.0325 0.001 N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 0.6005 0.3363 0.0593 0.0038 0.0001 N/A N/A N/A
5 0.5254 0.3753 0.0901 0.0088 0.0003 0 N/A N/A
6 0.4586 0.4012 0.1228 0.0164 0.001 0 0 N/A
7 0.3991 0.4161 0.156 0.0265 0.0021 0.0001 0 0
8 0.3464 0.4217 0.1884 0.0393 0.004 0.0002 0 0
9 0.2998 0.4197 0.219 0.0544 0.0068 0.0004 0 0
10 0.2586 0.4115 0.2469 0.0716 0.0107 0.0008 0 0
11 0.2224 0.3983 0.2716 0.0905 0.0157 0.0014 0.0001 0
12 0.1906 0.3813 0.2926 0.1108 0.0222 0.0023 0.0001 0
13 0.1628 0.3614 0.3098 0.1321 0.03 0.0036 0.0002 0
14 0.1386 0.3395 0.323 0.1538 0.0393 0.0054 0.0004 0
15 0.1175 0.3163 0.3322 0.1755 0.0502 0.0077 0.0006 0
16 0.0992 0.2924 0.3374 0.1968 0.0624 0.0107 0.0009 0
17 0.0834 0.2684 0.339 0.2173 0.0761 0.0145 0.0014 0.0001
18 0.0699 0.2445 0.337 0.2365 0.091 0.0191 0.002 0.0001
19 0.0582 0.2212 0.3318 0.2541 0.107 0.0247 0.0029 0.0001
20 0.0483 0.1988 0.3237 0.2698 0.1239 0.0313 0.004 0.0002
21 0.0398 0.1774 0.3131 0.2833 0.1416 0.039 0.0055 0.0003
22 0.0327 0.1573 0.3002 0.2943 0.1598 0.0479 0.0073 0.0004
23 0.0267 0.1384 0.2856 0.3029 0.1782 0.058 0.0097 0.0006
24 0.0216 0.121 0.2694 0.3087 0.1964 0.0693 0.0125 0.0009
25 0.0174 0.1051 0.2522 0.3118 0.2144 0.0819 0.016 0.0012
26 0.0139 0.0905 0.2342 0.3122 0.2316 0.0956 0.0203 0.0017
27 0.0111 0.0774 0.2157 0.3099 0.2479 0.1104 0.0253 0.0023
28 0.0087 0.0657 0.1971 0.305 0.263 0.1262 0.0312 0.0031
29 0.0068 0.0553 0.1786 0.2977 0.2764 0.143 0.0381 0.004
30 0.0053 0.0461 0.1605 0.2881 0.2881 0.1605 0.0461 0.0053
As you can see, you NEVER get anywhere NEAR a 90% chance of drawing exactly one land. I seriously have no idea where you pulled your numbers from.
-Chuck
I think that 3 strips is perfectly fine. I think that keeper is silly to run 5 of them- it has enough issues with mana allready. Then again, I am on the oath/blue side of control and favor aggression or recursion. Then again, I run 3 impulse, 1 sylvan, 4 fact, ancestral, stroke, walk, 2 blessing, and demonic tutor in my oath deck. I find 3 strips to be just fine thankyou. In blue, my 2 strips/2 btb maindeck (3 strips/ 4 btb after siding) seems do quite well for me against librarys as well.
extract -is- shit, and sylvan is awsome though.
Chuck, I was using an opening hand as 8 cards. Run those numbers and without actually posting the tables, if there is a disparity I will go over the math again.
I think part of the problem I've had with only using two wastes is that I've been playing BBS for the last few months and haven't ever needed more than that -- and when I was running the seal of cleansing Keeper I only had two in then too, but no one complained then -- however I was running four impulse.
Ok so answer the two questions I posed. I'm not against running another waste, but I would like to know what to cut. I just don't want to fix one problem by stealing the solution to another.
"The point I was trying to make is this: if I do add a Wasteland, which I'm not opposed to at all -- esp. given how slow this format is going to be, the question is, am I opening up bigger holes? The answer is quite possibly yes."
No, not really, as a well built Keeper deck actually doesn't have mana issues very often at all unless the opponent gets an LD heavy hand-- something that you have denied yourself from having the possibility to do back.
"First of all, that would mean I would have to waste a tutor tutoring for land anyway if I'm mana screwed and I feel my A. recall will be countered."
Okay guys, when was the last time ANYONE here wasted a Demonic or Vampiric Tutor trying to get a land that wasn't LoA or did something besides tap for mana?
"Not to mention that in your example DTing for a Waste is DAMNED GOOD use of a dt."
Not really... I'd much rather just have good odds of actually DRAWING one since smart players will just counter your Demonic Tutor. "Gee, he's Tutoring and I have an LoA out... wonder what he's going for?" It's a mediocre play at best, since DT is better served getting restricted cards generally speaking.
"So let's boil this down to a single point: Keeper has an unstable mana base -- I was trying to shore that up by creating a slightly lesser weakness against LOA."
Well, I assume you mean "greater weakness" but whatever. The single point that I'll boil down to is this: Keeper doesn't have serious mana issues often if you have a suitable ratio of colored mana spells to land in the deck, and this is easy to do and still fit 5 Strips.
"1) Are three strips enough to ward off LOA as long as I save them for LOA or mana screwed opponents?"
No. Let's not forget something else very important as well: not every land worth killing is LoA or involved in mana screw.
"2) If not, what would you suggest removing for the third strip, but keeping the color mana count damned near what it is now?"
Well, I'd have to see the SB but for the time being I'd say either build the deck around HW or cut it and rework your mana with less green.
Here's what I'm trying to get at with Holistic Wisdom: After you cast it, what do you do?
Recur Extract.
I think you an everyone else has forgotten that you are playing Holistics in the deck.
You only need 2 Strips/Wastes because if it comes right down to it, you can pay 2- toss a land in hand and recur one of those Wastes you dropped early in order to kill off that stupid library.
Don't even start a gripe with me about card disadvantage either! Cause who wouldn't pay 2,Sac a land in your hand: to destroy LoA? Thank you!
So... Keep your 2 Wastes and don't listen to these dorks, when it comes down to it, you have everything you need to not hafta worry about the #$%@&* Library.
People seem to love The Abyss. It shuts down creature decks. Moat is a bit past it's time, but is doubtless one of the best creature control enchantments ever made. Funny how people still play(ed) one or both of them when the 2 most dominant decks in the format run an Untargetable Flying mofo.
Extract SHOULD BE The Abyss for BBS and Keeper. It completely shuts down their win condition. Unfortunately, it has the problem that it deals with 1 of 2 or 3 threats in the deck (that would be pre-sideboard). OSE runs what, 6 damage dealers now?
Jester's Cap would seem to be The Abyss for BBS/Keeper. The problem is that it costs 6 mana to use it in one turn, and otherwise it takes 2 turns. It's 4 mana, which isn't all that playable unless you already have control (in which case you don't need it).
So I don't know if Extract is worth running.
In conclusion, Lybia is a land of contrast.
Saltz
Quote:Extract SHOULD BE The Abyss for BBS and Keeper. It completely shuts down their win condition.
[quote]Unfortunately, it has the problem that it deals with 1 of 2 or 3 threats in the deck (that would be pre-sideboard).[/quote]
Way to read, Rakso. It's always nice to read the whole post, eh?
Also, it does. If Keeper runs 2 Morphlings, and you Extract them, it wins how? Stroke/Geyser are no longer commonly found in Keeper. I would be very interested in knowing how you win without your Morphlings. Of course, your version runs Urza's Rage...I suppose that is another win conditon. And as I said, because Keeper runs 2 or 3 win conditions, Extract isn't going to cut it.
Saltz
So why exactly did this analysis of a T1 deck get moved to the rumor mill?
"Also, it does. If Keeper runs 2 Morphlings, and you Extract them, it wins how? Stroke/Geyser are no longer commonly found in Keeper. I would be very interested in knowing how you win without your Morphlings. Of course, your version runs Urza's Rage...I suppose that is another win conditon. And as I said, because Keeper runs 2 or 3 win conditions, Extract isn't going to cut it."
This is totally incoherent. Are you FOR Extract or AGAINST it? You start out saying one thing and switch over in mid-sentence.
I agree with you Az, but I think you're totally wrong.
--Matt
Note to self: Be coherent.
The idea of my rather crappy post was that Extract would appear at a glance to be The Abyss for BBS and Keeper. However, because of the number of threats in Keeper (more than 1), it's hardly effective.
The other part of the part of the post was just wondering how a deck wins without a win condition.
Saltz
Steven - run your numbers again. The chance of getting exactly one land out of 12 in your opening hand peaks out with a 5 card hand, at 42.75%, and goes downhill from there. With an 8 card hand, you'll only get exactly one out of 12 34.5% of the time. You don't get a 90% chance to draw at least one of 12 until you've drawn your 10th card.
Azhrei said:
""Not to mention that in your example DTing for a Waste is DAMNED GOOD use of a dt."
Not really... I'd much rather just have good odds of actually DRAWING one since smart players will just counter your Demonic Tutor. "Gee, he's Tutoring and I have an LoA out... wonder what he's going for?" It's a mediocre play at best, since DT is better served getting restricted cards generally speaking. "
That's just foolish: Of COURSE it would be a good use of DT. And of course I would rather just draw a waste, but that does not negate the fact of even diminish the fact that DTing for a Wasteland when opp has LOA is still a great use for the tutor, if it goes off or not.
Ensign - is is possible that you have made your calculations without subtracting your numbers from 1, so that with an eight card hand you'll get one 65% of the time?
Stephen Menendian
Stephen Menendian
to satisfy the God of Statistics:
you have a 85% probability of drawing at least 1 card out of 12 within 8 cards,
81% with 7 cards
75% with 6 cards
69% with 5 cards
60% with 4 cards
49% with 3 cards
36% with 2 cards
20% with 1 card
If you take 7 and mulligan down to 5 till you have at least 1 land of the chosen colour the probability of getting it is 1-0.19*0.25*0.31=98.5%
What the heck is this doing in the rumour mill? This is a Type 1 strategy article.
IMO it is good that a strategy discussion is not in the same Mill as discussions about music groups
Big Blue, your numbers look right, but they directly contradict Ensigns who said:
"The chance of getting exactly one land out of 12 in your opening hand peaks out with a 5 card hand, at 42.75%, and goes downhill from there. With an 8 card hand, you'll only get exactly one out of 12 34.5% of the time. "
Stephen Menendian
Well, so Ensigns numbers must be wrong
So the conclusion is:
Keeper SUCK!
hey, im new to this shit.
it was really cool to read all the posts...ive learned allot! thx to all of ya type 1 folks arguing strategy I know think I know wich deck im gonna construct. cool
-Later